Author: Michael Hoke

In Mid-Q3, sellers outnumbered buyers by 57.9%, the widest gap since 2013, with 1.53M sellers and 972.3K buyers nationwide across the US market.
Listings drove the shift: sellers ↑3.9% MoM, the largest monthly increase in a portal's records, while buyers posted just ↑0.1% nationwide overall.
Active buyers gained leverage in Mid-Q3: three in five homes sold below original list price, as inventory hit its highest level since 2020.
Even with stronger bargaining power, affordability stayed tight: 30-yr mortgage rates hovered in the high-6% range, and the national median sale price was ↑2.2% yearly.
The earlier mortgage lock-in eased, bringing more owners to market, but demand stayed constrained; existing-home sales ↓2% to a 3.98M annual pace.

Recent signs pointed to housing disinflation, with buyers and sellers increasingly mismatched and sellers offering more concessions, creating potential savings for households chasing homeownership.
The clearest current hurdle remained borrowing costs: benchmark Treasury yields hovered near ~5%, while the avg. 30-yr mortgage rate moved above low-7%.
In the four weeks ending Sept. 13, the median monthly mortgage payment reached ~$2.6K, ↑~3% yearly, reflecting how financing costs kept affordability stretched for buyers.
The resale market stayed sticky, with many owners holding low-rate loans and keeping listings scarce, while sellers still sought pandemic-era pricing in many deals.
Industry voices described the US market as a correction toward stability, not a crash, with strong equity, sound lending, and opportunities for buyers and sellers.

Pennsylvania had ~142.9K vacation homes, representing 2.5% of the state's housing stock and placing part-time use within a much larger pool of ~5.81M homes.
The Pennsylvania snapshot also showed a median home price-to-income ratio of 3.3, offering added context for how housing costs related to earnings.
Renters faced pressure too: 48.2% of Pennsylvania renters were cost-burdened, meaning housing expenses took a significant share of household budgets overall statewide.
Within Pennsylvania's full housing inventory, vacation homes remained a relatively small segment, leaving the vast majority of homes outside seasonal, recreational, or occasional use.
The Pennsylvania figures combined vacation-home prevalence, overall housing supply, ownership affordability, and renter strain into one snapshot of how seasonal housing fit the market.

By Late-Q3, the typical US buyer's monthly payment reached $2.6K, a 14-mo high, as mortgage costs climbed and median sale prices held firm.
The national median home-sale price ↑~2% yearly to ~$399K, adding affordability pressure and helping keep pending sales flat MoM and lower yearly.
Mortgage-purchase applications were slightly lower recently, while new listings fell MoM around holiday timing but still stayed modestly above the comparable 2025 period.
Seller strategy mattered more: ~21% of active listings cut prices, and an agent noted sharper pricing helped attract attention while overpricing created hesitation.
Inventory also improved, with active supply ↑~2% yearly to 1.5M homes and supply near 4 mo, still shy of a balanced market.

Persistent inflation and elevated long-term Treasury yields are making a rapid return to low interest rates less certain.
The Federal Reserve faces competing pressures as policymakers balance inflation risks against signs of weakening economic momentum.
Higher long-term yields could keep borrowing costs elevated for consumers, businesses, housing, and commercial real estate.
Investors may increasingly favor a balanced approach as interest-rate uncertainty, fiscal pressures, and inflation continue influencing financial markets.

In Mid-Q3, price per square foot fell yearly in 36 of the 50 largest US metro areas, showing broader cooling across major housing markets.
Nationwide, price per square foot was ↓~2% yearly in Mid-Q3, marking the 10th straight month of yearly softening in this national measure.
The market lost momentum as Mid-Q3 ended, with some sellers cutting asking prices more sharply to attract buyers and bring expectations closer together.
High mortgage rates continued to challenge affordability, especially in markets that surged during the pandemic, prompting sellers to meet buyers closer to the middle.
An economist said many boom-era markets were giving back part of their pandemic gains, helped by inventory levels that were above pre-pandemic norms.